Japan
Power · Eat · Heal.
Japan leads the three markets in energy science, and its winners list at home. We read the research and the company register in Japanese, so we reach founders before any round exists.
01 · Entry and exit
1.48xHeal
Japanese health has the strongest exit-to-entry ratio of the nine market and system cells we model. Power sits at 1.16x and Eat at 0.88x. Each ratio is the acquisition exit ceiling divided by entry multiple, both against United States scale.
Modelhmm fund model: entry multiple 0.25, graded contested; acquisition ceilings Heal 0.37, Power 0.29, Eat 0.22, graded judgement. Information Memorandum, section 10.
320listings
Japan had 320 venture-backed listings from 2016 to 2025, third of the six countries the survey compares. Listings took 57% of exit value from 2021 to 2025.
METI, PwC and JVCA, Startup Ecosystem Research 2026 (PitchBook data), pp. 40 and 42.
55%by listing
In our model 55% of Japanese winners exit by listing, after 8 years. Australia takes 9 years and New Zealand 14.5.
Modelhmm fund model, plate of 13 September 2026: listing share and years to a winner exit.
02 · What Japan produces
1.32Power
Japan leads in energy. Its specialisation index is 1.32 in Power, against 0.73 in Heal and 0.74 in Eat, where 1.00 is the share its size predicts. It gave the world the carbon anode that made lithium-ion cells manufacturable, and pulse oximetry.
hmm catalogue of 79 innovations and patents. Information Memorandum, section 9.
03 · How we pick
60days
A newly approved drug lists for national health insurance within 60 days of approval, and 90 at most. We date each route to revenue before we invest.
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare listing rule, as read in the Information Memorandum, section 10. New medicines only.
Figures tagged Model are inputs to our fund model and our judgement, graded in the Information Memorandum. Every other figure is a measurement, and its source sits beneath it.
Yen at ¥150 = US$1, the survey's own convention.
Wholesale investors · wt@hmm.ventures