The scoreboard
Five Structural Certainties.
The Necessities pairs five structural certainties about regulatory direction with five dated, testable claims about magnitude. Each claim has a date, a dataset, and a pass/fail test.
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Certainty 1
Seed entry remains near parity; later-stage outcomes show a premium.
By end-2027, the cumulative T1-to-unregulated funding premium widens from 2.12x (2026) to at least 2.30x at Series D+ in the four target markets.
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Certainty 2
The T1/T2 screen continues to identify a durable regulated cohort.
By end-2028, the T1+T2 share of the four-market 19,416-company dataset re-query holds at or above 33%.
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Certainty 3
Regulated companies capture a rising share of later-stage capital.
By end-2028, regulated companies' share of four-market Series C funding holds at or above 60%.
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Certainty 4
Strategic acquirers in NA and EMEA remain active buyers of developed-APAC regulated companies.
By end-2028, at least two additional named acquisitions of developed-APAC regulated-technology companies by NA or EMEA strategic acquirers close at EV at or above $100M.
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Certainty 5
Developed APAC continues to produce investable regulatory change in the Necessity categories.
By end-2028, at least three of the thirty-four in-flight regulations crystallise as enacted operational frameworks.